To ask the Minister of Health to detail any epidemiological modelling his Department has undertaken on the risk of rising flu levels this winter.

The Public Health Agency (PHA) monitors a number of indicators of the incidence and severity of influenza and other respiratory infections and reports many key indicators on the PHA website weekly during the winter season. PHA also monitors information from elsewhere in the world about hazards to health, including seasonal influenza, and publishes a high-level summary on its website every week. The intelligence from these reporting processes is also communicated directly to my officials.

PHA uses a quasi-Poisson statistical model on a large number of surveillance indicators to detect outbreaks and unusual infectious disease activity. This detected the early start to the influenza season, contributing to PHA’s advice to my Department that influenza was circulating earlier than usual. As a result, the Chief Medical Officer issued guidance to HSC on 23 September 2025 that antivirals could be prescribed for suspected influenza in the community.

The seasonal Influenza A epidemic has waned rapidly since reaching its peak before Christmas. The peak number of admissions each week was similar to last year, though more of those affected were children.